In a recent report sent by Fitch Group to Rigzone website, analysts of BMI Institute, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, published their latest forecast of Brent oil prices until 2028. According to this report, BMI analysts predict that the Brent index price will average $85 per barrel this year, $82 per barrel in 2025, and $81 per barrel in 2026, 2027 and 2028.Bloomberg Energy Markets, included in the report, predicts Brent prices to average $84 per barrel this year, $80 per barrel next year, $79 per barrel in 2026, $73 per barrel in 2027. And it will be $72 per barrel in 2028. The previous report sent by Fitch Group to Rigzone website at the beginning of June confirms BMI’s Brent oil price forecast and partially confirms Bloomberg’s price forecast. Another report sent to Rigzone by Fitch Group at the end of March published its Brent price forecast exactly like BMI. In that report, Bloomberg predicted that Brent oil prices will average $83 per barrel in 2024, $80 per barrel in 2025 and 2026, and $72 per barrel in 2027 and 2028.BMI’s perspective on price
BMI analysts have announced in the latest published report: “We stick to our forecast for Brent crude oil prices to average $85 per barrel for the rest of the year and decrease to $82 per barrel in 2025.” These experts continued their report: “The performance of the global energy market this year has been a little weaker than we expected, which creates the risk of a downward trend for our outlook. However, we expect the relative stability prevailing in the market during the summer months to increase the annual average price and partially offset the market volatility towards the end of the year. Energy market analysts also stated: “In this context, we expect a potential price correction in our market forecast for 2025 as our data suggests that oversupply will emerge in the coming quarter.” In the report, analysts noted that Brent has rebounded from losses suffered in May and stressed that the strategic commodity has also recovered from a low of $77.50 per barrel on June 4 to around $86 per barrel. is Analysts in this report say: “This issue partly indicates a real correction in the sales process, although against the flow of the oil market, following the issuance of the latest announcement by the OPEC Plus coalition.”
Look at other variables
However, in the meantime, more important components have also played a role. Global oil demand increases seasonally in the summer months and key oil exporters are forced to limit their exports to meet higher domestic consumption. The decrease in the level of oil exports will probably be more evident in the current year, while OPEC Plus production limits are still in place. BMI analysts also noted that in the current situation, the process of reforming the structure of the energy market has also strengthened. This is consistent with the view that the physical balance between supply and demand decreases significantly during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. Analysts say that the improvement of the psychological atmosphere prevailing in the market has also influenced the recent price increase. “Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that Brent has been boosted by managed funds in the market, relative to long-to-short positions,” they noted in the report. According to this report and under the current conditions, it is likely that oil investors have confirmed the improvement of the fundamental conditions in the energy market and recognized that a significant price reduction will be unlikely in the short term. However, the current conditions prevailing in the market do not indicate a sustainable price increase to a significant extent above the current price level. Analysts continued: “Given the weak outlook for global economic growth and the expectation of the return of the OPEC Plus barrel injection reduction strategy to the market from the beginning of October, this issue has been predictable.”
They warned that in the horizon of 2025, the demand for oil is expected to decrease. The energy market is about to return to a long-term structural decline, with consumption falling from 0.5% this year to zero next year and remaining in negative territory for the rest of the decade. They added that the occurrence of cyclical ups and downs in the macro economy can increase the economic growth index. At the same time, the increase in energy efficiency and the rapid adoption of alternative fuels will gradually move the curves of economic growth and oil demand further apart in the coming years. Energy analysts added: We are more optimistic about the outlook for demand in emerging markets, but we still do not see a decline in growth from 2.9% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025. In a report sent to Rigzon late last week by Paul Horsnell, Head of Commodity Research at Standard Chartered Bank, the company’s analysts, including Horsnell, emphasized that Brent will quickly break the $1.41 cents per barrel chart gap after the expiration of the monthly futures contract. August was restored. It should be noted that the futures contracts for the first half of September increased by one dollar and 45 cents per barrel and reached $86 and 60 cents per barrel on July 1st. Oil prices did not change much on Tuesday, July 30, and remained at a level not seen since early June (about two months ago). The reason for this is reported to be concerns about demand in China. A flurry of disappointing economic news from China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, weighed on commodity prices. A Reuters poll showed that China’s manufacturing activity fell for a third month in July.
